000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300319 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 0300 UTC AUG 30...HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.1W OR ABOUT 225 MILES S SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 580 MILES S SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 10 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90 KT GUSTING TO 110 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH AN 10 NM DIAMETER EYE OCCASIONALLY APPEARING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE SE OF CENTER. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. AT 0300 UTC AUG 30...TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 122.1W MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 5 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG A BROKEN BAND WITHIN 150 NM OVER SW QUADRANT AND SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL LOWS... .A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRES IS NEAR 17N137.5W AD IS MOVING JUST S OF DUE W AT 10 KT...AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1013 MB. THE LAST SSMI PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS AT 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT ...BUT MOSTLY DUE TO A NW SWELL THAT HAS MOVED SE INTO THE SAME AREA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH ON SUN...AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W OF 140W AROUND SUNSET SUN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 05N ALONG 92W AND IS MOVING W AT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED AT 08N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING UNDER AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND UPPER LEVEL NLY WINDS. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 07N77W TO 12N82W TO 08N102W TO 13N113W. THE AXIS CONTINUES FROM 11N124W TO 07N140W. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ALREADY MENTIONED...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 05N TO THE E OF 84W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF 06N88W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N92W TO 08N99W TO 14N111W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N139W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 11N W OF 128W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYLONE OVER HURRICANE JIMENA DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 111W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM JIMENA IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO...THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN CONCENTRATING INTO A PLUME OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. BETWEEN THESE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 32N126W TO A BASE NEAR 25N127W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 26N11W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 13N122W IN THE VICINITY OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 31N118W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 19N W OF 109W. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TRAILS AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA OVER THE EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 85W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 90W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF IGNACIO ARE AT 27N129W AND ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. GAP WINDS...EXPECTING NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT TO PULSE ACROSS THE AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ NELSON