000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292129
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.2W OR ABOUT 270 
MILES...435 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 655 
MILES...1055 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AT 2100 UTC 29 AUG MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. 
MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
105 KT GUSTING TO 130 KT. JIMENA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND HAS 
A WELL DEVELOPED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. 
THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR 
CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH VERY WARM SSTS OVER 
30C...VERY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND LOW SHEAR. JIMENA POISES 
A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. REFER TO NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 102W-107W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN A BAND FURTHER N 
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 100W-106W. 

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.2W OR ABOUT 1065 
MILES...1720 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AT 2100 UTC 29 AUG MOVING WNW AT 4 KT. MINIMUM 
SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT 
GUSTING TO 50 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W 
OF THE CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 121W-124W. 

...TROPICAL LOW... 

.A SMALL 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N136W MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH AFTER 
24 HOURS AND THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SE 
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT DEVELOPED INTO 
TROPICAL STORM DANNY IN THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 
93W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NEAR THE ITCZ 
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 92W-95W.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 06N77W TO 
10N91W TO 08N100W TO 12N111W...AXIS CONTINUES 11N123W TO 
08N140W. EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG N OF 05N E OF 83W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 09N93W.   

...DISCUSSION...
BESIDES AL THE SURFACE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE...A 1016 MB 
LOW...THE REMNANTS OF T.S. IGNACIO IS LOCATED NEAR 28N129W. THE 
LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PRESENTLY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. FURTHER N... A 
1025 MB HIGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N137W. IN THE 
TROPICS...GAP WINDS...ELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL PULSE ACROSS THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
21N136W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NE TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N117W. 
A SECOND ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH MEXICO NEAR 18N97W. 
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 14N115W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...OFF THE S COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA ALONG 24N112W 17N118W. NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FURTHER 
S OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 
140W...AND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA E 110W. 

$$
FORMOSA