000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.2W OR ABOUT 285 
MILES...455 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 335 
MILES...535 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 1500 
UTC 29 AUG MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE 
PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT GUSTING TO 
85 KT. JIMENA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED 
A SMALL EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE 
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR 
CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH VERY WARM SSTS OVER 
30C...VERY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND LOW SHEAR. JIMENA POISES 
A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. REFER TO NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 101W-106W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN A BAND FURTHER W 
FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 106W-108W. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 121.5W OR 
ABOUT 1010 MILES...1625 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 1500 UTC 29 AUG MOVING NW AT 8 KT. MINIMUM 
SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT 
GUSTING TO 40 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS....AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 
TONIGHT. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W 
OF THE CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 121W-124W. 

...TROPICAL LOW... 

.A SMALL 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N135W MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH AFTER 
24 HOURS AND THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SE 
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT DEVELOPED INTO 
TROPICAL STORM DANNY IN THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 
11N-14N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO 
NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 91W-93W.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N77W TO 
09N105W TO 14N120W THEN CONTINUE FROM 10N125W TO 07N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF 05N80W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BESIDES AL THE SURFACE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE...A 1015 MB 
LOW...THE REMNANTS OF T.S. IGNACIO IS LOCATED NEAR 28.129W. THE 
LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PRESENTLY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. FURTHER W... A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 32N139W 27N143W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. IN THE TROPICS...GAP WINDS...ELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL 
PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
21N136W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NE TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N117W. 
A SECOND ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH MEXICO NEAR 18N97W. 
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 14N115W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...OFF THE S COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA ALONG 24N112W 17N118W. NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FURTHER 
S OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 
140W...AND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA E 110W. 

$$

FORMOSA