000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291018 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED 14.1N 102.3W 1006 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 29 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 20 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. SEAS UP TO 12 FT WERE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT ONLY. JIMENA WAS LOCATED TO THE SW OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND EMBEDDED IN ASSOCIATED DEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS JIMENA MOVES MORE WNW AND THEN NW AND OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WATERS ALONG THIS PATH ARE VERY WARM AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND JIMENA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL LOWS... .BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW PRES NEAR 12N120W WAS ANALYZED AT 1008 MB. WINDS HAVE REMAINED 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 360 NM SE AND 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER...GENERATING SEAS TO 9 FT ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS NE TO SW ALIGNED CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO BANDS WITHIN 240 NM OVER W AND NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. .A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRES HAS BECOME EVIDENT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR 17N133W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1011 MB. THE LAST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE...WHERE SEAS WERE UP TO 8 FT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH AFTER 24 HOURS AND THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ESTIMATED ALONG 90W AND MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM DANNY IN THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N76W TO 07N79W TO 10N86W TO 08N93W TO 13N113W TO 08N126W TO 11N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR IS CENTERED NEAR 24N133W HAS A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 14N145W AND A RIDGE E TO NEAR 27N123W. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYLONE IS NEAR 31N119W WITH A RIDGE S TO A SHARP CREST AT 27N120W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N127W TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH SW ALONG 30N130W TO 29N140W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS IS AT 21N115W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 05N120W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW PRES NEAR 12N120W WITH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED SW MERGING WITH ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE NEAR 08N124W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 18N W OF 110W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 17N96W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING S OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 84W AND 108W...AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N138W BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A STRONGER RIDGE NW OF THE AREA BRIDGES THROUGH A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE REMNANTS OF IGNACIO PERSISTED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...CENTERED NEAR 29N128.5W AND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. GAP WINDS...ELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULFO DE PAPAGAYO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...PULSES OF MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE BASIN...AND ARE MIXING WITH THESE LOCALLY GENERATED AREAS OF WINDS AROUND THE VARIOUS LOWS AND TROPICAL SYSTEMS. $$ STRIPLING