000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N119W MOVING WNW NEAR 10-15 KT. 
BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOW. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 08N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 121W. SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MODESTLY 
WARM IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALSO APPEAR 
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

.1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N100W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BANDS 
OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO FLARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOW. AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH OVER S MEXICO TO THE NE IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT ACROSS THE SYSTEM...FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED TSTM 
DEVELOPMENT. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN 
SEMICIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM IN THE PATH 
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOP TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CLOSE 
PROXIMITY TO LAND THREATEN HEAVY RAINS AND MUDSLIDES TO PORTIONS 
OF COASTAL MEXICO.   

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 06N ALONG 85W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS 
WAVE HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED ABUNDANT TROPICAL CONVECTION S OF 
NICARAGUA TO THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W-88W. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 07N77W TO 
11N118W TO 08N125W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM LINE 05N80W TO 11N106W AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
150 NM LINE 16N113W TO 07N127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ALONG 32N137W 30N140W 27N150W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS E OF THE FRONT NEAR 
29N126W. A 1014 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF IGNACIO IS 
CENTERED NEAR 29N128W. THE LOW IS QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS 
WEAKENING.  

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
22N131W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 16N140W. A SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N91W. 
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 10N110W. A SMALL CYCLONE IS IN 
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...OFF THE S COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 19N114W. NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FURTHER S OVER THE TROPICS 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER MOISTURE IS OVER THE 
TROPICS FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 140W...AND OVER MOST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA E 110W. 

$$
FORMOSA