000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE 
SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 16N115W. IR SATELLITE IMAGES 
SHOW AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE MASS IN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH 
HAS GAINED CURVATURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MODERATE 
ELY SHEAR IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION E OF THE CENTER. A 
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 0200 UTC REVEALED A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH 
AN ELONGATED E-W CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA...WINDS ARE MAINLY 
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER. THERE IS A 
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
  
...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 08N78W 10N110W  
15N112W 12N127W 14N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N TO 09N E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N 
TO 06N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN HAS FLATTENED TODAY BUT STILL A 
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE IS 
ALIGNED ALONG 134W WHILE THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA TO 20N129W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THESE FEATURES...PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES 
IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N136W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES EXIST 
ACROSS THE NW CORNER AND N 15-20 KT WINDS NEAR THE N BAJA COAST 
WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS IN BETWEEN. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL 
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 
MID-WEEK.

S OF 20N...
A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
TROPICS...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW. THE DIFFLUENT 
FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW 
PRES...SPECIAL FEATURE...NEAR 115W. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 
LONG PERIOD...14-16 SECOND...S TO SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE 
SUBSIDING.

$$
CANGIALOSI