000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230310 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 138.5W OR ABOUT 1050 NM...1945 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AT 23/0300 UTC. HILDA WAS MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO WITHIN 100 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT AND 75 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT AND 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER OF RESPONSIBILITY MIDDAY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 08N TO 21N MOVING W AT 17 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOWED AN IMPROVED AREA OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH EVIDENCE OF A CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 14N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 90-120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 20N. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 125W FROM 08N TO 17N MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS SOUTH OF 15N. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 13N110W TO 11N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 13.5N116W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... A FAIRLY COMPLEX MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N106W...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST NEAR 28N123W...ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR 23N135W...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 23N146W. WHILE THE PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED...THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NEAR MEXICO WHERE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...HAS WEAKENED THE SURFACE RIDGE AND HENCE THE TRADES. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT...EXCEPT FOR OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AND MON. S OF 20N... VERY DIFFLUENT NE MID-UPPER FLOW AND DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICS. DIFFLUENT FLOW WAS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W AND WAS AIDING IN MAINTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG PERIOD...14-17 SECOND...S TO SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ LL