000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.9W AT 22/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB. THE DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED 1075 NM...2050 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO WITHIN 150 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION WAS DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W/107W FROM 08N TO 17N MOVING W 15-17 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE EARLIEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPROVED AREA OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH EVIDENCE OF A CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THE WAVE MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED WESTWARD ON THE 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN A BROAD BAND S OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 123W FROM 08N TO 18N MOVING W 12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED AS THE ONE ALONG 106W/107W. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 12N TO 15N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N81W TO 13N106W TO 12N130W TO 14N132W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... A FAIRLY COMPLEX MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 23N105W ...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR 23N135W...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 23N146W. WHILE THE PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED ...THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NEAR MEXICO WHERE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS/DRAINAGE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 105W-110W...NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...HAS WEAKENED THE SURFACE RIDGE AND HENCE THE TRADES. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT...EXCEPT FOR OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AND MON. S OF 20N... ELY MID-UPPER FLOW AND A HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICS. CONVECTION IS FOCUSED AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG PERIOD...14-17 SECONDS... S TO SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ COBB