000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220305 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... LOW 14N135W 1007 MB MOVING W AT 8 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IN THE LAST DAY HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W/103W FROM 08N TO 16N MOVING W 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES REVEAL A LARGE ZONE OF HIGHLY MOIST CONDITIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 120W FROM 07N TO 17N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING...COVERING 8 TO 10 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE...IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 10N105W TO 11N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 11.5N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 11.5N113.5W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 133W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N143W AND EXTENDS OUT ABOUT 450 NM. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS EXCEPT FOR A PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION IN A BAND ABOUT 120 NM WIDE ALONG 137W. ANOTHER LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N125W AND EXTENDS OUT ABOUT 500 NM. THIS AREA IS ALSO DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 115W. THE LOW OFF THE UPPER BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE OTHER CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...20N105W. THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH TO 98W. THIS AREA IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI LAYER CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. THIS WEATHER COVERS ALL OF MEXICO WEST OF 98W EXCEPT FOR CLEAR SKIES OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A TROUGH IS LOCATED EAST OF THE ABOVE RIDGE TO ABOUT 67W. THE TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. DRY AIR IS OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT EITHER SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. THE AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION. SURFACE... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 118W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE LOW AT 14N135W A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AT A PERIOD OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT. $$ LL