000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W N OF 05N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 81W-89W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 128W FROM 06N-15N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  
BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH A LOW CENTER 
FORMING AT 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
08N-12N BETWEEN 125W-130W.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG 08N77W TO 
10N100W TO 09N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...FROM 
06N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 107W...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 125W AND 129W.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ FROM 11N TO 
15N BETWEEN 86W AND 98W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N150W. A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SE TO 34N140W TO THE S COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 
23N115W. 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE TROPICS...BESIDES THE 
TROPICAL WAVES...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 115W FROM 08N-14N. A 
SURFACE LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 12N115W. 5-10 
KT TRADES ARE E OF 120W WHILE 10-15 KT TRADES ARE W OF 120W. THE 
IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO IS VOID OF ANY DEEP 
CONVECTION. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS HOWEVER  
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE N OF 3N FROM ECUADOR TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 
110W. THE SAME SSMI MOISTURE EXTENDS W ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N 
-17N W OF 110W TO BEYOND 140W.  

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AT A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA THU NIGHT...WITH 20 PERIOD SWELLS REACHING SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA LATE FRI.     

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 27N140W. A SECOND 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 22N117W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE 
IS IN BETWEEN CENTERED NEAR 18N133W. ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 80W TO 
110W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED N OF 17N BETWEEN 110W-140W. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA NAMELY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE TROPICS S OF 17N.   

$$
FORMOSA