000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE GUILLERMO CENTERED AT 20.4N 139.8W AT 2100 UTC MOVING 
WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 
MB. GUILLERMO IS SURROUNDED BY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 45 NM OVER THE SW QUADRANT...AND 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM OVER THE 
S SEMICIRCLE. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WNW. SEE THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 90W N OF 06N AND INTO THE 
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
WEAK AND BARELY IDENTIFIABLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 102W FROM 06N TO 16N...MOVING W 
AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO WEAK WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN TWO TO THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE 
AXIS FROM 10N TO 16N. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 117W FROM 06N TO 14N...MOVING W 
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO WEAK.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG AXIS FROM 
08N83W TO 08N90W TO 10N100W TO 10N125W TO 12N135W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W 
AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 127W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED NEAR 23N119W AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THE 
DIAMETER OF THE CIRCULATION IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES ACROSS AND HAS 
BECOME SLIGHTLY ELONGATED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODERATE 
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF GUILLERMO TO 32N W OF 
125W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS 
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WESTWARD TO 125W N 
OF 27N. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TROPICS S OF 12N IS EASTERLY TO 
NORTHEASTERLY WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS 
IN THE 25 TO 40 KT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC  
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N133W IN 48 HOURS.

E OF 110W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. SOUTH OF ABOUT 10N TO THE EQUATOR WINDS ALOFT ARE 
MAINLY EASTERLY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS SPEEDS. AT THE 
SURFACE FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WINDS ARE FORECAST IN 42 HOURS TO BE NE TO E 20 KT AND SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT.

$$
CAB