000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152138 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE GUILLERMO CENTERED AT 19.2N 134.5W AT 2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 1390 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 958 MB. GUILLERMO HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY TODAY AND APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN THE SLOW AND GRADUAL WEAKENING PROCESS AS IT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS...AND SOME DRIER MORE STABLE AIR IS SLOWLY BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE SW AND S SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A WELL DEFINED BUT CLOUD FILLED EYE REMAINS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. INFRA RED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WRN EYEWALL ERODING AWAY WITH TOPS WARMING...BUT TSTM TOPS WITHIN THE EYEWALL HAVE SINCE COOLED...WITH THE STRONGEST AND HIGHEST CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE NE QUADRANT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT LOW PRES CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E HAS BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE ITCZ TO THE SW OF GUILLERMO...AND IS AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 84W...MOVING ACROSS PANAMA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS...EXTENDING N-NW INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN...WITH WESTWARD MOTION ESTIMATED AT 20 KT THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE EPAC AND AS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN AND INTO COASTAL COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 96W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 20 KT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED SW OFF OF COASTAL CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE OPEN OCEAN...FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO EL SALVADOR WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND EXTENDED TO 104W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 111W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE WAVE IS APPROACHING THE SE EXTENSION OF THE EPAC SURFACE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING BETWEEN 108W AND 117W FROM 16N TO THE ITCZ. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NW OF THIS WAVE WAS AIDING IN VENTING MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 10N86W TO 12N108W TO 09N120W TO 12N135W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF AXIS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W ...DISCUSSION... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 24N128W IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 120W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SE THROUGH SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GOOD OUTFLOW OVER HURRICANE GUILLERMO...AND OVER THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDS... HAVE SPREAD N TO ALONG 29N BETWEEN 124W AND 144W AND IS ALSO ADVECTED S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120 W AND 135W. DRY AND SUBSIDENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII EWD TO THE W PERIPHERY OF GUILLERMO...AND APPEARS TO WRAPPING UNDERNEATH TO THE S OF GUILLERMO AND THEN INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE SE QUADRANT. THIS...AND GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS TO THE NW...WILL LIKELY AID IN THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF GUILLERMO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED SW AND IS OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 19N101W AND DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WNW OVER THE PACIFIC...OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND WAS NEAR 21N113W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO ALONG 10N115W THEN CONTINUES S ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 06N113W. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS FAR ERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND THEN SW ACROSS NRN COAST RICA. A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SE THAT ORIGINATES OVER COLOMBIA WAS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 90W...AND WAS COMBINING WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND SPEED DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION THERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVE. AT LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 45N137W SE AND OFFSHORE BUT PARALLEL TO THE COAST TO 14N112W. THIS BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS INCREASED THE NNW SURFACE WIND FLOW ALONG THE W COAST OF THE U.S. INTO SRN CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT...AND INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND HAS ENHANCED THE BROAD WIND FIELD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AND OUTWARD OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO...WHERE SEAS TO 12 FT EXTEND OUT TO BEYOND 90 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND LIKELY 150 TO 180 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. GAP WINDS...A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT WERE STILL SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER THESE CONDITIONS HAVE LIKELY MOVED OFFSHORE WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW 20 KT IN RECENT HOURS. A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED ENE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS EASTERLY TRADES ARE FAIRLY STRONG UPSTREAM IN W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CROSS HEMISPHERIC SE AND SW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SEA STATE THERE...OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO. $$ STRIPLING