000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151614 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE GUILLERMO CENTERED AT 18.9N 133.2W AT 1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 1340 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 954 MB. GUILLERMO HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...IN PART DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED IN BANDS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER AND WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EYEWALL. GUILLERMO HAS LIKELY FINALLY REACHED ITS PEAK AND WILL REMAIN NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS IT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND WIND SHEAR. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE BROAD REMNANT LOW PRES REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS DIFFICULT TO FIND THIS MORNING ANS IS CURRENTLY BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH . SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ IN THIS REGION BETWEEN 134W AND 143W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 05N ALONG 83W WITH WESTWARD MOTION ESTIMATED AT 20 KT THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE EPAC AND AS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN AND INTO COASTAL COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N TO 16N ALONG 94/95W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 20 KT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS MOVING SW OFF OF COASTAL CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N TO 16N ALONG 110/11WW AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 18 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 120 NM TO THE E AND 240 NM TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 15N. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 09N85 TO 10N100W TO 12N108W TO 09N115W TO 12N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 160 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W...AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 24N128W IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 120W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SE THROUGH SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GOOD OUTFLOW OVER HURRICANE GUILLERMO...AND OVER THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDS... HAVE SPREAD N TO ALONG 30N BETWEEN 124W AND 144W AND IS ALSO ADVECTED S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120 W AND 135W. DRY AND SUBSIDENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TO THE W PERIPHERY OF GUILLERMO...AND THEN EXTENDS NE AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY BEGIN TO ENTRAIN SOME OF THIS DRY AIR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE ALSO BEGINNING TO TRACK OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED SW AND IS OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 19N101W AND DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT W OVER THE PACIFIC...OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND WAS NEAR 21N112W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO ALONG 10N115W THEN CONTINUES S ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 06N113W. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS FAR ERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND THEN SW ACROSS NRN COAST RICA. A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SE THAT ORIGINATES OVER COLOMBIA WAS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 90W...AND WAS COMBINING WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND SPEED DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. AT LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 45N137W SE AND OFFSHORE BUT PARALLEL TO THE COAST TO 14N112W. THIS BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS INCREASED THE NNW SURFACE WIND FLOW ALONG THE W COAST OF THE U.S. INTO SRN CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT...AND INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND HAS ENHANCED THE BROAD WIND FIELD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AND OUTWARD OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO...WHERE SEAS TO 12 FT EXTEND OUT TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER. GAP WINDS...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT NNE TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE STILL SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT. LATEST QUIKSCAT ALSO INDICATE ENE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND MAY OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS EASTERLY TRADES ARE FAIRLY STRONG UPSTREAM IN W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CROSS HEMISPHERIC SE AND SW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SEA STATE THERE...OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO. $$ STRIPLING