000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142139 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI AUG 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 2100 UTC...HURRICANE GUILLERMO AT LOCATED 17.9N 128.9W OR ABOUT 1120 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 972 MB. GUILLERMO HAS SHOWN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A CLEAR EYE FEATURE NOW EVIDENT...INDICATING STRENGTHENING. GUILLERMO HAS LIKELY REACHED OR IS VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE ITS MOTION TAKES IT OVER COOLER WATERS...AND DRY AIR POTENTIALLY BEGINS TO BECOME ENTRAINED...WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N139.5W AND WAS ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY W...AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ELONGATED TROUGHING OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE SW QUADRANT AND EXTENDED 300 NM SW OF THIS LOW. A CONTINUED W TO W-SW MOTION...OR DRIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW...WHICH WILL KEEP IT OVER WARM WATERS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SW FASTER THAN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...LEAVING IT STRETCHED AND EXPOSED ON THE NE SIDE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 90W AND WILL ENTER INTO THE SW CARIB AND FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING. CONVECTION ALONG THE EPAC ITCZ E OF 95W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 90W WITH WESTWARD MOTION ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KT. BROAD AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS DOMINANTS THIS REGION...AND THE DOMINANCE OF THE S AMERICAN MONSOON CIRCULATION IS GIVING THIS WAVE A MORE POSITIVE TILT THAN INDICATED...WITH THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE LIKELY PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED 105W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 20 KT OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE PAST DAYS DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY AND SYNCHRONOUS MOTION WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE TO THE E. LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WAS INDICATED UPSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...S OF 13N AND BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 09N84W TO 10N113W TO 17N127W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 23N123W IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVELS FROM 115W TO 133W...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN ERODING THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEAR 24N132W TODAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE PORTION OF THE RIDGE CONTINUED TO SUPPORT OUTFLOW OVER HURRICANE GUILLERMO... WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT W PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...WHERE THE RIDGE WAS ALSO ERODING. DEBRIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS NOTED REMAINING S OF 24N BETWEEN 123W AND 133W. A NARROW AND ELONGATED TUTT AXIS STRETCHED IN AN "S" LIKE FASHION FROM W NEW MEXICO ACROSS EXTREME NW MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN WESTWARD ALONG ABOUT 27N AND THEN S-SW TO THE W OF GUILLERMO...WHERE VERY DRY CONDITIONS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE SINKING MOTION AND SUBSIDENCE INTO THE MIDDLE LEVELS. HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO AS IT ENTERS THIS ENVIRONMENT...AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 20N98W AND DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE E OF 100W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 100W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE W CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NORTH OF THE ABOVE RIDGE...AND TURNS SW INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 19N110W...WITH THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 111W. THIS UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY W-NW...AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO ITS S AND SE. AT LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA AT 36N143W TO 22N114W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE TOP OF IT. GAP WINDS...AN OVERNIGHT SSMI PASS...AND MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KT NLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTS THAT THE NE TO E WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DIMINISHED JUST BELOW 20 KT. EASTERLY TRADES ARE FAIRLY STRONG UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PAPAGAYO GAPS WINDS...WITH MODEST PULSES IN WIND SPEED UP AND DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ STRIPLING