000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140955 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI AUG 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 0900 UTC...HURRICANE GUILLERMO AT 17.6N 125.9W OR ABOUT 1100 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 987 MB. INTERMITTENT EYE LIKE FEATURES APPEARED EARLIER TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MINIMAL HURRICANE FOR ABOUT A DAY AND THEN WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS HE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IS LOCATED NEAR 12N138W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 05N ALONG 85.5W WITH WESTWARD MOTION ESTIMATED AT 20 KT. ITCZ CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 10N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N TO 16N ALONG 101.5W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 08N78W TO 08N110W TO 13N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 76W AND 100W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 21N120W IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 115W...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO ERODE THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEAR 27N138W. CURRENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING OUTFLOW OVER HURRICANE GUILLERMO WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING S OF 23N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ALL TO THE W AND N OF A LINE ALONG 15N130W TO 23N128W TO 30N113W. HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY BEGIN TO ENTRAIN SOME OF THIS DRY AIR IN ABOUT A DAY AS HE MOVES OVER COOLER SURFACE WATER. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AT 17N92W AND DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE E OF 100W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 23N97W AND TURNS SW INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 18N108W WITH THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 111W. AT LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA AT 32N132W TO 17N110W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW ANALYZED WITHIN THE ITCZ BELT AT 110W WITH BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED. GAP WINDS...THE LATEST SSMI PASS INDICATES THAT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE STILL SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING TODAY THEN DIMINISH. LATEST QSCAT AND SSMI PASSES SUGGEST NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE SURGING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. EASTERLY TRADES ARE FAIRLY STRONG UPSTREAM IN W CARIBBEAN SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FEW DAYS. $$ NELSON