000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140402 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI AUG 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS NEAR 17.2 124.5W...OR ABOUT 860 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 992 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED. SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ESTIMATED ALONG 82W...WITH A POSITIVE SE TO NW TILT...FROM THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC TO NICARAGUA...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 100W...WITH A POSITIVE SE TO NW TILT...MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE PERSISTS IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE LINE...08N82W TO 09N109W TO 15N121W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N106W...OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. DIVERGENT FLOW FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...IN THE AREA OF A TROPICAL WAVE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. A 15Z ASCAT PASS AND A 17Z SSMI PASS HINTED OF 20 KT FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...JIVING WITH 25 KT FLOW REPORTED FROM A SHIP SOUTH OF THE GULF EARLIER TODAY. THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE LIKELY AIDED GAP WIND FLOW IN THIS AREA. AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST FRI WITH THE SUPPORT UPPER LOW...GAP WIND FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH. 20 KT WINDS REPORTED FROM LIBERIA COSTA RICA HINT THAT FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO PERSIST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. W OF 110W...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER 25N130W IS BUILDING AND SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER TROUGH NE OF HAWAII NEAR 30N145W. THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS RELATED TO THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS BEING INVADED BY MOIST OUTFLOW OFF GUILLERMO. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR GUILLERMO...VENTED BY E TO SE DEEP LAYER FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MOVED OVER AND NEAR GUILLERMO...HINTING OF SEAS UP TO 26 FT. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER BY NOW AS THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY. FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION HAD INCREASED EARLIER TODAY AS WELL NEAR THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E...AS THIS SYSTEM MOVED TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION HAS SPUTTERED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM 19Z SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF SEAS TO 10 FT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...WHERE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH HAS MAINTAINED FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. $$ CHRISTENSEN