000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121614 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED AUG 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1590 MILES...2560 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY MODEST CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME SLOW AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE LOW WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E. AT 900 AM PDT...1600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...1085 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W/84W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS MINIMAL...AND WAS TRAILING THE WAVE...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL CIRCULATION OVER COLOMBIA AND THE LOCAL REGION. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE LINE... 05N77W TO 09N110W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 125W TO 133W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 130W...ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE BY A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 35N 132W. THE AREA REMAINS VERY STABLE...WITH A BROAD FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TRAPPED IN THE MARINE LAYER BELOW STABLE AND STAGNANT MIDDLE LEVEL CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHEASTWARD...NORTH OF 25N...AND ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE AREA EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. EAST OF THE RIDGE IS A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N120W TO NEAR 17N128W. ALONG 125W EXTENDS EAST TO 118W. NWLY FLOW DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SINKING AIR AND AN ELONGATED DRY SLOT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...CONVERGENCE WAS ALSO INHIBITING CONVECTION OCCURRING N OF THE ITCZ...AND WITH THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 15N132W. FROM 125W TO 105W A LARGE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE SW TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...EXTENDING SW TO THE ITCZ. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WAS AIDING TO VENTILATE AND SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA...AND AIDING IN ITS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE OF THIS RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH...WITH TUTT LIKE LOW NEAR 17N108W...WAS SHIFTING WEST ALONG THE SRN MEXICAN COAST...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NE INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. DIVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SW QUAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NW WAS SUSTAINING ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W AND 107W. EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WAS AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING S AND SW ACROSS COLOMBIA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN TROPICAL EPAC. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE ADJACENT EPAC WITH AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...AS STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 20-25 KT W-SW FLOW PREVAILED THERE S OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. WEST OF THE NEWLY DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E WAS A STRONG OF LOW LEVEL VORT CENTERS...OR WEAK LOW CENTERS...NEAR 14.5N132W...13.5N141W...AND ANOTHER W OF THE AREA NEAR 13N148W...ALL MOVING W AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SPEED OF 10-15 KT. GAP WINDS... NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. N WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY. A MIX OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTING THESE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS...WITH A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SRN HEMI SWELL TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST LATE SAT. BROAD FIELDS OF 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF TROPICAL WAVES AND LOW TRANSITING THE BASIN CONTINUE TO RAISE SEAS A FEW FEET HIGHER...TO 8 FT AND GREATER ACROSS THESE ZONES. $$ STRIPLING