000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120923 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED AUG 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E NEAR 14.7N 131.3W OR ABOUT 1300 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 0900 UTC AUG 12. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED WITH THE DEPRESSION AS IT IS PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND ENCOUNTERING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION THROUGH THURSDAY AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO A TROPICAL STORM. LOW 14N114W 1008 MB MOVE WEST 15 KT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NW-SE FROM 19N116W TO 13N112W. CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN THE AREA 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 18N117W TO 11N111.5W. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BY THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W/86W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG THE LINE ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM 20N115W TO 09N108W IS NOW A TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE LINE... 05N77W TO 09N110W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 06.5N78.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 09N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 08N128.5W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 130W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE SOUTH OF 25N WITH MOIST MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF 25N. EAST OF THE RIDGE A TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 125W EXTENDS EAST TO 118W. THIS AREA IS ALSO DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. FROM 118W TO 105W LARGE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THIS AREA ID DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE LOW AND TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 105W TO 94W. THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUDS FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. WEAK RIDGE IS EAST OF 94W WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT THERE ARE FEW CLOUDS IN THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ EAST OF 81W. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE IS LOCATED ROUGHLY N OF 22N W OF 110W. NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE W OF 130W. GAP WINDS... NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. N WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY S OF 10N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. $$ LL