000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111624 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009 CORRECTION FOR CLARIFICATION IN GAP WIND SECTION... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1260 MILES...2030 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...OR 270 DEGREES...NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AROUND THIS SYSTEM IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT HAS MOVED INTO A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDUCED WITHIN THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 125/126W. VERY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED OF RECENT...REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...OCCURRING 50-80 NM FROM THE CENTER IN ALL BUT THE W QUADRANTS. A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N112W 1010 MB WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE COVERING AN AREA BETWEEN 113W AND 105W. THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA...BEING VENTILATED BY DIFFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE BEST CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WAVE MAY BE OCCURRING A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT ANALYSIS...AND THIS WAVE MAY BE GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION. THE SURFACE LOW WAS JUST OUT AHEAD...OR TO THE W OF THE BEST MID LEVEL TURNING INDICATING BY RECENT IMAGERY...AND THE LOW MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN THIS DEEPER LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ENTERING THE EPAC FORECAST AREA...EXITING NW S AMERICA...ALONG 78/79W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE ITCZ AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...IN LOW LEVEL SWLY CONVERGENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 98W N OF 05N MOVE W 10-15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ WAS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE WAS POSITIVELY TILTED FROM 113W TO 107W FROM 07N TO 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS AN EMBEDDED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS ALSO MENTIONED ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA...AND WAS STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM NEAR 16N136W TO 08N142W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHER PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE LINE 07N78W TO 08N96W TO 12N109W TO 09N122W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 127W. ...DISCUSSION... EXTENDING FROM WEST TO EAST...A RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH UPPER PATTERN COVERS THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING... STARTING JUST SE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS WERE NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED AND NARROW...CENTERED ALONG 124/125W...AND 92/93W. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW S OF THE EQUATOR...AND ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TWO UPPER RIDGES...WAS ACTING TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 105W AND 133W...AND WAS VENTING AND ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEMIPERMANENT HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 33N141W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MODERATE TO STRONG GRADIENT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE U.S. AND TO BAJA CALIFORNIA OF RECENT WEEKS HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WINDS ALONG THE SRN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KT. S OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE SIZED ZONES OF 20 KT WINDS WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT...WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF EACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. GAP WINDS... NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A PLUME OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WERE INDICATED BY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR 20 KT OR GREATER FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. $$ STRIPLING