000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100914 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON AUG 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 122.1W OR ABOUT 825 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 7 KT AT 0900 UTC AUG 10. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. CONVECTION IS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 14.5N121.5W. DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANT EXCEPT THE OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM TODAY AND REACHING PEAK INTENSITY WEDNESDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W/90W N OF 05N AND OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 05N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM E AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 14N. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N IN 24 HOURS. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N133W TO 15N130W IS MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE AXIS CUTS THROUGH THE ITCZ AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WEST OF 130W WITHIN THE ITCZ. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OUTSIDE THE ITCZ HAS DIMINISHED. THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZED BY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 07N105W TO 06N125W THEN CONTINUE 12N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 07N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N137W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 125W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH PATCHES OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE THROUGH 32N110W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 125W. THE AREA IS ALSO DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXCEPT CLEAR SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 122W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N113W. WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF THE CENTER THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOSTLY DRY AND CLOUD FREE EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS TEXAS AND OVER MEXICO FROM NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS REGION IS ALSO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SMALL AREA BETWEEN THE TWO ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGHS IS A NARROW RIDGE, WEAKENING CONVECTION WITHIN THIS RIDGE IS LEAVING BEHIND SOME CLOUDINESS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. EAST OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO 91W A DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT. WIDESPREAD MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION IS WITHIN THIS REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE OCEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 103W IS IN THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 91W TO 85W. THIS AREA IS MOSTLY DRY AND CLOUD FREE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. EAST OF 85W ANOTHER DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE IS OBSERVED WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 115W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE. GAP WINDS... DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT TUESDAY. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA S OF 06S BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ LL