000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100328 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON AUG 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 121.5W...OR ABOUT XXX NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 10/0000 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 70 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 05N AND INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 05N IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED UP TO THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N107W IN 24 HOURS. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W FROM 06N TO 15N IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 130 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 13N. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 08N78W TO 10N98W TO 11N101W TO 09N118W THEN FROM 11N134W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 115W... A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN ABOUT 118W AND 130W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 125W. A RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR 21N138W DOMINATES THE W PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE SW THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF T.D. NINE-E. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...STEERING T.D. NINE-E ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE IS LOCATED ROUGHLY N OF 20N W OF 120W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING ALONG AND OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 135W NE WINDS ARE 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. E OF 115W... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS LOCATED ALONG 112W FROM 08N TO 18N. TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT WATERS. GAP WINDS... DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA S OF 06S BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. $$ GR