000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE FELICIA IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE 
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WAS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 140.8W 
AT 08/1500 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
100 KT. FELICIA IS MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 13 KT WITH AN 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 975 MB. FELICIA CONTINUES 
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH NO DISCERNIBLE EYE LEFT. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
CENTER OVER THE NORTH AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE 
SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. FELICIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER 
WATERS AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR. THE LAST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE HURRICANE CENTER 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC. FUTURE ADVISORIES 
WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPCP2/WTPA32 PHFO. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS 
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE CARRIED IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE 
INTERPRETATION MESSAGE UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOSIMHI/ATHW40 
PHFO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF 07N TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 95W 
IS MOVING W AT 12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH A HINT OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED 
NEAR THE AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N TO 14N ALONG 125W MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 11N TO 13N. THE CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED BY LOW LEVEL 
CYCLONIC FLOW. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 16N ALONG 116W. 

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS FROM 04N77W TO 09N93W TO 09N108W TO 12N115W TO 
09132W TO 12N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 300 NM 
S OF AXIS E OF 100W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 117W TO 127W 
AND WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 128W TO 136W.
    
...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO 
THE AREA ALONG 32N122W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N129W. 
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FORMER 
T.D. ENRIQUE...NOW A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N TO 28N 
ALONG 130W. 

FURTHER W...MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N137W 
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STEERING AND GOVERNS THE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT AROUND DEPARTING HURRICANE FELICIA. AN AREA OF 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PUSHING SWD ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE. 

WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
20N123W. SOME SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM 
OF THE CENTER. 

A TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC ALONG 
18N103W TO 09N110W. DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN 
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N108W HAD RESULTED IN 
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER MEXICO AND ADJACENT EAST PACIFIC N OF 
CABO CORRIENTES. THIS CONVECTION APPEARED TO BE RELATED TO 
DIURNAL LAND SEA INTERACTIONS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 22N 
WEST OF 115W. 

$$
COBB