000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FELICIA IS NEAR 19.0N 139.3W AT 08/0900 UTC WITH 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. FELICIA IS 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 12 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 974 MB. FELICIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. FELICIA 
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS TREND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO 
ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTH 
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. FELICIA 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER 
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY TODAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE IS NOW A TROUGH 
FROM 28N128W TO 25N130W. THE TROUGH IS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO 
MIDDLE LEVELS AND IS WEAKENING AT THE SURFACE AND WILL DISSIPATE 
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF 07N TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 94W 
IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE 
AXIS AND CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED HOWEVER NO DEEP CONVECTION IS 
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N TO 14N ALONG 124W MOVING W 10 KT.  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 
13N. THE CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED BY LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS FROM 08N77W TO 09N92W TO 08N100W TO 11N120W TO 
10N130W 14N135W 12N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS EAST OF 100W. 
    
...DISCUSSION...

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS INTO THE 
AREA AS A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N108W TO 25N125W TO 32N138W. THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 

WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
20N122W. THIS AREA IS ALSO DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. THE LOW LEVELS ARE 
ALSO MOSTLY CLEAR.

A TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WITHIN 500 NM OFF THE COAST 
OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 100W TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WEAKENING CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THIS AREA 
BUT APPEARS TO BE MORE RELATED TO DIURNAL LAND SEA INTERACTIONS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 115W. SURFACE TROUGH 
FROM 16N125W TO 09N116W, WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 13.5N116W. 
ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

$$
LL