000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072156 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI AUG 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FELICIA WAS NEAR 18.3N 136.9W AT 07/2100 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. FELICIA WAS MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB. FELICIA HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY STATE INTENSIFICATION WISE WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN THE SIZE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND APPEARED INCREASINGLY CLOUD FILLED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION REMAINED WITHIN 45 NM IN THE NE AND 60 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLES OF FELICIA. FELICIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR. NONETHELESS FELICIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AS A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WAS NEAR 25.0N 129.8W AT 07/2100 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ENRIQUE WAS MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 5 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. ENRIQUE HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION AND IS ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWER ACTIVITY. A BELT OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS ARE MOVING OVER ENRIQUE. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS HAS LED TO THE DISSIPATION OF ENRIQUE INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 07N ALONG 90W MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AMPLE MOISTURE WAS NOTED BEHIND THIS WAVE ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN AND NRN S AMERICA. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TILTED NW TO SE AND STRETCHED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...AND IS NOT CURRENTLY INDUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE OVER YUCATAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ESTIMATED ALONG 121W FROM 04N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...AND WAS PART OF A BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 115W FROM 07N TO 14N. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS IS FROM 08N77W TO 10N110W TO 09N121W TO 07N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W...FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE AND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. EXTENDS S INTO SRN CALIFORNIA...WITH A S/W SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 125W AND A TRAILING S/W NEAR 32N131W. ELONGATED TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THIS FEATURE TO A BROAD UPPER LOW N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. S OF THIS ELONGATED CONNECTING TROUGH... S TO SWLY FLOW...AND AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NE OF HURRICANE FELICIA HAVE AIDED IN MAINTENANCE OF THE HURRICANES INTENSITY... WHILE THE STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW HAS SHEARED ENRIQUE. MODEST UPPER EASTERLIES AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE ITCZ THROUGHOUT THE BASIN W OF 90W. DISSIPATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY A MID LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH...WHILE FELICIA HAS MOVED WITH A MORE WWD COMPONENT WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS SEPARATING. A MID TO UPPER LOW NEAR 20N120W IS MOVING W AND PRODUCING VENTILATION TO ITS E...AIDING IN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. A WIND MAX SLICING ACROSS NRN MEXICO COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE S OF AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 27N108W HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALL DAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS FLARING UP IN THE VICINITY OF CABO CORRIENTES. A PERSISTENT...BROAD...AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER MEXICO THAT BECOMES MOST PRONOUNCED AT NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE... COMBINED WITH VARIATIONS IN TOPOGRAPHY WITHIN THE CHIVELA PASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SMALL PLUME OF N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS INDICATED BY A 1204 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH...AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE E CENTRAL PACIFIC IS COMBINING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. PULSES OF SRN HEMISPHERE SW SWELL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE TROPICAL EPAC AND ARE MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF THE EQUATOR...AND GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT FROM S OF THE BAJA TO PANAMA. A NEW PULSE OF THIS SW SWELL IS CURRENTLY REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ COBB