000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU AUG 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 16.4N 132.7W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 948 MB AT 2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S AND 60 NM N SEMICIRCLES OF FELICIA. THE HURRICANE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE OF AROUND 20 NM IN DIAMETER. FELICIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 2100 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE NEAR 22.5N 128.3W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF ENRIQUE. ENRIQUE IS WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SW PANAMA N OF 07N ALONG 81W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF W PANAMA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 06N TO 17N ALONG 117W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER NEAR THIS WAVE...WITH THE ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/1800 UTC ALSO INDICATING CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 116W AND 119W. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS IS FROM 08N82W TO 08N93W TO 09N107W TO 11N128W AND FROM 11N136W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 28N140W. TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM CONTAINING CORE WINDS OF 70-90 KT IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FROM HURRICANE FELICIA AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 26N119W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM 19N113W TO 13N117W TO 08N117W...ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR THIS UPPER TROUGH...ARE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N TO 17N ALONG 117W. A PERSISTENT...BROAD...AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER MEXICO THAT BECOMES MOST PRONOUNCED AT NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE... COMBINED WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS IN TOPOGRAPHY...ARE SUPPORTING N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 06/1230 UTC. THESE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH...AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH THE EJECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...WITH THE EJECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE MEXICO NEAR 18N93W TO 12N94W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY VARIATIONS IN LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. $$ COHEN