000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061601 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU AUG 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 16.0N 131.9W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 NM N SEMICIRCLES OF FELICIA. FELICIA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE OF 15 TO 20 NM IN DIAMETER AND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. FELICIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MAKES A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE NEAR 21.3N 127.6W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF ENRIQUE. ENRIQUE IS WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 07N ALONG 78W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND NW COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 115W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER NEAR THIS WAVE...WITH THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 06/0530 UTC ALSO INDICATING CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS IS FROM 05N77W TO 07N92W TO 09N113W TO 13N126W AND FROM 10N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN AXIS FROM 32N131W TO 28N140W. TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...A JET STREAM CONTAINING CORE WINDS OF 70-90 KT IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FROM HURRICANE FELICIA AND TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 25N120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM 17N112W TO 11N115W TO 05N115W...ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR THIS UPPER TROUGH...ARE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. A PERSISTENT...BROAD...AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER MEXICO THAT BECOMES MOST PRONOUNCED AT NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE... COMBINED WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS IN TOPOGRAPHY...ARE SUPPORTING N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 06/1230 UTC. THESE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH...AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH THE EJECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...WITH THE EJECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH NW WINDS OF 20 KT EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W TO 16N95W TO 14N99W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY VARIATIONS IN LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N E OF 107W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTING BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE S OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N108W. $$ COHEN