000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.9N 130.5W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 937 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 06 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 
10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. A 
WELL DEFINED EYE IS OBSERVED. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS 
OBSERVED AROUND THE SYSTEM AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
TONIGHT THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BEGIN THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE NEAR 19.7N 124.6W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 06 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT  
15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THURSDAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW 
FRIDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND IS NORTH 
OF 06N ALONG 81W/82W AND IS MOVING WEST 15 KT. A CONSIDERABLE 
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE. THE CONVECTION DOES 
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE 
COMPUTER FORECAST MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REMAIN 
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N TO 16N ALONG 112W MOVING W 15 KT. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE WAVE 
AXIS. THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
09N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 06.5N82W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 
08.5N115.5W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS MOVED 
NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N123W TO 16N140W. THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS WEST OF 125W. A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 130W. NO CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN THIS PLUME.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDS 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 105W TO 
115W. THIS AREA IS MOSTLY DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
HOWEVER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W 
IS WITHIN THE TROUGH AREA. ALSO CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE 
ITCZ SOUTH OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 107W IN THE DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY 
FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW INCLUDING OVER THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE AREA WEST OF 
135W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE 
AREA EAST OF 105W IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT RESULTING TO THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED ITCZ CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY THE 
DIFFLUENCE.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W 
AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL 
CYCLONES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD 
SURFACE TROUGH.
  
GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO TO ABOUT 90W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY 
NIGHT. 

$$
LL