000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.1N 128.7W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 955 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 05 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 
10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 
14N129W. A WELL DEFINED EYE HAS DEVELOPED. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW IS OBSERVED AROUND THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST 
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BEGIN THURSDAY. THE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE NEAR 17.3N 122.1W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 14 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OT 
THE POINT 16N122W. ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRI NIGHT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 17N ALONG 108W/109W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE WAVE 
AXIS. THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N77W TO 
09N105W TO 15N117W THEN A BREAK IN THE ITCZ SOUTH OF THE TWO 
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING FROM 11N132W TO 
08N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 10N EAST OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS MOVED 
NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNTIED 
STATES. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE 
THROUGH 32N124W TO 16N140W. THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 
LOWER LEVELS WEST OF 125W. A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. ONLY SMALL 
PATCHES OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THIS PLUME.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDS 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 105W TO 
115W. THIS AREA IS MOSTLY DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
HOWEVER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 
THE TROUGH AREA. ALSO CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE ITCZ SOUTH 
OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 107W IN THE DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST 
OF THE TROUGH.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW INCLUDING OVER THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE AREA WEST OF 
135W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE 
AREA EAST OF 105W IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT RESULTING TO THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED ITCZ CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY THE 
DIFFLUENCE.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W 
AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL 
CYCLONES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD 
SURFACE TROUGH.
  
GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO TO ABOUT 90W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE O DAYS.

$$
LL