000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 12.4N 126.6W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
985 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 04 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 
12.5N126.5W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OBSERVED AROUND THE 
SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST 
TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO 
MOVE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST. SEE LATEST NHC  FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE NEAR 15.0N 118.4W WITH A CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 998 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 04 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 
14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. LARGE 
AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS IS WITHIN 180 NM 
OF THE POINT 13.5N118W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OBSERVED 
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND CONTINUE TO 
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 17N ALONG 104W/105W MOVING W 15 KT.  
THERE IS SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTH END OF THE WAVE WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 19N106.5W. NO ORGANIZATION TO THIS CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AND 
AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND THIS 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ BUT IS NOT ORGANIZED BY ANY LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N77W TO 
06N90W TO 09N105W TO 13N112W THEN A BREAK IN THE ITCZ SOUTH OF 
THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH ITCZ CONTINUING FROM 10N130W TO 
06N140W. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED FROM 24 HOURS AGO NEAR THE 
EASTERN PART OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 06N81W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 10.5N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
38N129W AND IS MOVING LITTLE. THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION COVERS 
THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 32N123W TO 20N140W. FEW CLOUDS 
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WITH SKIES CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS WEST OF 125W. A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE 
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND ARE MOVING 
INLAND.

A WELL DEFINED MOSTLY UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 
14N136W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST IN TANDEM WITH ALL OF THE 
OTHER TROPICAL LATITUDE SYSTEMS. THE CIRCULATION IS NOT 
PRODUCING MUCH WEATHER EXCEPT TO DRAW SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE 
NORTH OF 15N. THIS CIRCULATION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART 
OF A LARGER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
22N130W TO 13N140W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND CHANGE LITTLE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST 
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY MID WEEK. 

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS AND 
IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 98W TO 115W. THIS AREA IS MOSTLY DRY 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN THE TROUGH AREA. ALSO CONVECTION HAS 
INCREASED IN THE ITCZ SOUTH OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 105W.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW. THE AREA SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 133W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AREA EAST OF 100W IS 
DIFFLUENT ALOFT RESULTING TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED ITCZ CONVECTION 
WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W 
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH.
  
GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO TO ABOUT 91W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
WEDNESDAY THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY. 

GAP N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

$$
LL