000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE NEAR 14.7N 117.1W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE 
OF 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 04 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 14 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. LARGE AREA 
OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS IS WITHIN 175 NM OF 
THE POINT 13N117W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OBSERVED AROUND 
THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE 
WEST NORTHWEST. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS NOW TROPICAL STORM FELICIA NEAR 
12.7N 124.9W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 
04 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN 
CLUSTERS IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 11.5N126W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OBSERVED AROUND THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING 
IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE 
LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. SEE LATEST 
NHC  FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 17 N ALONG 102W/103W MOVING W 15 KT.  
THERE IS SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTH END OF THE WAVE WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
OF 18N105W. NO ORGANIZATION TO THIS CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AND 
AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND THIS 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ BUT IS NOT ORGANIZED BY ANY LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
06N90W TO 11N110W THEN A BREAK IN THE ITCZ SOUTH OF THE TWO 
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH ITCZ CONTINUING FROM 09N130W TO 06N140W.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS EAST OF 100W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 09N 
EAST OF 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...


WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
37N129W AND IS MOVING LITTLE. THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION COVERS 
THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 32N122W TO 21N140W. FEW CLOUDS 
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WITH SKIES CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN 
THE LOWER LEVELS. A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE MOVING 
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND ARE MOVING INLAND.

A WELL DEFINED MOSTLY UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 
14N134W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST IN TANDEM WITH ALL OF THE 
OTHER TROPICAL LATITUDE SYSTEMS. THE CIRCULATION IS NOT 
PRODUCING MUCH WEATHER EXCEPT TO DRAW SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE 
NORTH OF 15N. THIS CIRCULATION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART 
OF A LARGER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
22N130W TO 13N140W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND CHANGE LITTLE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST 
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY MID WEEK. 

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS AND 
IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 95W TO 111W. THIS AREA IS MOSTLY DRY 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH ONLY THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW. THE AREA SOUTH OF 22N WEST OF 133W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AREA EAST OF 100W WITH THE 
ABOVE MENTIONED ITCZ CONVECTION ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W. REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH.
  
GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO TO ABOUT 91W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
TWO DAYS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY. 

GAP N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

$$
LL