000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE AT 13.3N113.9W MOVE W-NW AT 12 KT.  
MINIMUM PRES 1004 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 WITH GUSTS 
TO 45 KT.  LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS 
MOSTLY ON E AND W QUADRANTS OF CENTER.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE 
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER ENRIQUE BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT 
EFFECT OF UPSTREAM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E OUTFLOW PUTS A 
QUESTION MARK ON STRAIGHT FORWARD SOLUTION.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E AT 11.9N122.7W MOVING W-NW 12 KT.  
CENTRAL PRES 1007 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT EXPECTED 
TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12 HRS.  NUMEROUS MODERATE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE.  SIMILAR 
TO ENRIQUE...T.D. EIGHT-E HAS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW WHICH SUPPORTS ITS STRENGTHENING...BUT SAME UNCERTAINTY 
BEFALLS UNTO THIS SYSTEM.  BOTH HAD RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 
LAST 8-12 HRS AND ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MORE ALBEIT AT A 
SLOWER PACE.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 06N ALONG 100W MOVING W 15-20 KT.  LITTLE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY TO WAVE AS ADVERSE UPPER 
CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CURTAILED DEVELOPMENT.  

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 06N90W TO 13N111W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 84W TO 109W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 37N130W DRIFTING E WITH 
TROUGH EXTENDING TO 32N130W THEN TO 24N140W. DRY AIR MASS IN MID 
AND UPPER LEVELS WHILE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IS WITHIN 360 NM S 
OF TROUGH ADVECTING TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

WELL DEFINED UPPER CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 14N132W BEING FORCED W BY 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER TROPICAL SYSTEMS.  CIRCULATION NOT 
PRODUCING MUCH WEATHER EXCEPT TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE N OF 15N.

LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-105W. TROUGH 
INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
100W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAPS WINDS EXPECTED TO LOSE SUPPORT FROM WRN 
CARIBBEAN WINDS WITHIN 36-48 HRS AND DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC FRESH N BREEZE HAS LITTLE SUPPORT FROM WIND FLOW 
IN GULF OF MEXICO AND NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH OVER 48 HRS NOR 
TO INCREASE ABOVE PRESENT STRENGTH. 

$$
WALLY BARNES