000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032120 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON AUG 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE LOW PREVIOUSLY CENTERED NEAR 13N111.5W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E NEAR 13.0N 112.6W AT 2100 UTC AUG 3 MOVING WEST OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. UPPER FLOW IS OBSERVED TO BE DIFFLUENT AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N 121W 1010 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 121W TO 124W FROM 10N TO 14N. THE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED BY THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. UPPER FLOW IS OBSERVED TO BE DIFFLUENT AND FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 06N ALONG 98W TO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE WAVE IN THE ITCZ REGION. THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION TO THIS CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N78W TO 06N90W TO 10N105W THEN INDISTINCT CONTINUING FROM LOW AT 11N121W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 06N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 89W TO 96W. ...DISCUSSION... WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 37N129W AND IS MOVING LITTLE. THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 32N124W TO 26N140W. THE CLOUDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SKIES ARE CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 250 TO 350 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A WELL DEFINED MOSTLY UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 13N131W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST IN TANDEM WITH ALL OF THE OTHER TROPICAL LATITUDE SYSTEMS. THE CIRCULATION IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH WEATHER EXCEPT TO DRAW SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OF 15N RESULTING IN A SMALL AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 128W TO 133W. THIS CIRCULATION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF A LARGER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM NEAR 32N110W TO 25N115W TO 17N133W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND CHANGE LITTLE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY MID WEEK. A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 90W TO 105W. THIS AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE AREA SOUTH OF 22N WEST OF 133W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 113W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE TWO LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH. GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO ABOUT 91W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. $$ LL