000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N111.5W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 
MB MOVING WEST 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE 
SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. THE 
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZED BY THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION. UPPER FLOW IS OBSERVED TO BE DIFFLUENT AND FURTHER 
ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N TO 16N ALONG 121W MOVING W 15 KT. LOW IS 
CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N121W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
FROM 120W TO 123W FROM 09N TO 14N. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE 
ORGANIZED BY THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. UPPER FLOW 
IS OBSERVED TO BE DIFFLUENT AND FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 08N ALONG 96W/97W TO ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION 
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR THE SOUTH 
PART OF THE WAVE IN THE ITCZ REGION. THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION TO 
THE CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
06N90W TO 07N100W TO LOW 13N111.5W TO LOW 10N121W TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
POINT 06.5N79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
OF THE POINT 06.5N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 09N85W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
37N129W AND IS MOVING LITTLE. THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION COVERS 
THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 32N124W TO 29N130W TO 27N140W. 
THE CLOUDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH OF 
THE AREA. SKIES ARE DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A PLUME 
OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM SOUTH 
OF THE TROUGH AND MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA ND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A WELL DEFINED MOSTLY UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 
14N129W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST IN TANDEM WITH ALL OF THE 
OTHER TROPICAL LATITUDE SYSTEMS. THE CIRCULATION IS NOT 
PRODUCING MUCH WEATHER EXCEPT TO DRAW SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE 
NORTH OF 15N RESULTING IN A SMALL AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 126W TO 131W. THIS CIRCULATION IS 
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF A LARGER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM NEAR 32N108W TO 25N115W TO 17N132W. 
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST 
AND CHANGE LITTLE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND 
BECOME DIFFUSE BY MID WEEK. 

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 90W TO 105W. THIS 
AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH SOME 
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW. THE AREA SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 132W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 113W. REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE TWO LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE IS ANALYZED AS 
A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH.
  
GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO TO ABOUT 91W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
LL