000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030314
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 10N ALONG 92W MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS JUST 
ENTERING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH LARGER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION 
RUNNING WELL AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 15N ALONG 118W MOVING W AT 15 
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 
16N WITHIN 300NM W OF AXIS.  BROAD ELLIPTICAL CYCLONIC WITH 
MULTIPLE CYCLONIC SWIRLS OBSERVED.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION AND MODEL GUIDANCE LEAN 
TOWARDS DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES CENTER WITHIN NEXT 12-24 HRS. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 18N ALONG 134W MOVING W AT 10- 
15 KT.  WAVE UNDER ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE 
FOR CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 10N77W TO 11N104W TO 10N109W TO 12N116W TO 09N122W TO 
12N132W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 05N78W TO 07N88W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE 
AROUND THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TROPICAL WAVE CONVECTION FROM 
06N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 09N TO 13N ALONG 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE N OF AREA NEAR 37N130W HAS TROUGH EXTEND SE 
TO 20N126 THEN TO SECOND CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 13N127W.  DRY UPPER 
AIR WITHIN 180 NM OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  TROUGH SPLITS TWO UPPER 
ANTICYCLONES...ONE AT 18N138W AND ANOTHER AT 21N117W.  SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W AND ITS DEEP CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE IS LOW PRES CENTER ANALYZED AT 
12N108W HAS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT...ALBEIT ITS 
CLOSENESS TO TROPICAL WAVE ALNG 118W.  MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS 
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND CONDITIONS ALOFT SEEM FAVORABLE.  ONLY 
FLY IN THE OINTMWENT IS UNKNOWN INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE TWO 
SYSTEMS.

GAP WINDS...NE TO E WINDS THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO CONTINUE AS STRONG TRADES FORCED BY HIGH PRES INTO WRN 
CARIBBEAN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES