000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUL 28 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N TO 16N ALONG 109W/110W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N WITHIN 120 NM W AND 150 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS NOTED BUT THE CONVECTION IS NOT CONCENTRATING AROUND A CENTER. THE COMPUTER MODEL MOVES THE SYSTEM WEST AND MAINTAINS A WEAK LOW WITH THE WAVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOES NOT DEVELOP THE CIRCULATION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOTED. WEAK SHEAR IS OVER THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 16N ALONG 127W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THE COMPUTER MODEL MOVES THE SYSTEM WEST AND MAINTAINS THE WAVE AND AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED. SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS OVER THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N TO 12N ALONG 136W/137W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N WEST OF THE AXIS. THE COMPUTER MODEL MOVES THE SYSTEM WEST AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM A WEAK WAVE. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED. SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS OVER THE SYSTEM. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 07N100W TO 10N110W TO 10N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 07N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 12.5N128.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 07N138.5W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N140W. THE TROUGH IS WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N121W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 140W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 130W. A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS FROM 30N TO 32N WEST OF 135W. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS WITHIN THE TROUGH AREA. SE OF THE TROUGH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N125W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW EXTENDS OUT ABOUT 400 NM. MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION. ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIFFLUENCE. A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 28N107W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS IS OVER MEXICO NORTH OF 25N. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE MAINLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 23.5N108W. BETWEEN THE TWO ABOVE MENTION ANTICYCLONES A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N114W. THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION EXTENDS SOUTH ABOUT 350 NM. THE AREA IS MOSTLY DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE IN A BAND ABOUT 200 NM WIDE BEYOND THE 350 NM AREA. THE CONVECTION IN THE SE QUADRANT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST OF THE ABOVE TROUGH TO 96W. THIS AREA IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH MOIST MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND ENHANCED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. EAST OF 96W A TROUGH IS OBSERVED WITH AN AXIS ALONG 87W. THE AREA EAST OF THE AXIS IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION. MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 112W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 120W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA. GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE. $$ LL