000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 07N ALONG 90W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 
ABOUT 18 KT THE PAST FEW DAYS. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 13N94W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 04N ALONG 100W AND IS MOVING W AT 18 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY 
ENHANCED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 16N.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 114W HAS MOVED W AROUND 15 
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE W 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE 
ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 
119W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 13N ALONG 122W AND HAS MOVED 
W AT ABOUT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING 
THROUGH AN AREA THAT HAS SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. 
CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED N OF 10N BUT FAIRLY WELL ENHANCED FROM 
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W. 

...ITCZ...
THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG POINTS FROM 05N74W TO 10N98W T0 10N114W 
TO 08N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N79W...AND FROM 08N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 102W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 15N113W TO 08N122W TO 06N137W...AND WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N134W TO 13N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W TO E INTO THE AREA ALONG 
10N140W TO 07N135W AND APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 
132W AND 142W AND ALSO ALONG THE RIDGE WHICH IS IN PHASE WITH 
THE ITCZ. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE BORDER OF OF 
NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA NEAR 32N110W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 
A RIDGE CREST OVER OLD MEXICO AT 23N108W. ANOTHER UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER BELIZE WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 
85W AND 115W...AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS 
CENTRAL OLD MEXICO MERGING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM 
CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE WELL DEFINED PLUME 
NOW CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA 
AND OVER COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. SOME OF THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS ALSO SPREADING S OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ...BUT APPEARERS 
TO EVAPORATE ALONG 06N BETWEEN 92W AND 115W.
      
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 33N138W 
WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 21N W OF 
128W WHERE EVAPORATING UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED.
A NARROWING BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED FROM 32N125W TO AN 
UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 25N125W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED FROM 12N 
TO 25N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W.
    
GAP WINDS...N WINDS SURGED AT 15 TO KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. NE TO E WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO ALONG 102W ARE AT 15 TO 25 KT. NEWLY FORMING 
NE TO E SWELLS IN THIS AREA IS MERGING WITH S AND SW SWELLS THAT 
ORIGINATED IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO 
DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT MON AND TUE. 

ANOTHER TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO 
MOVE N REACHING THE EQUATOR NEAR 100W MON.

$$
NELSON