000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261540 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 05N ALONG 88W/89W MOVING WEST 18 KT. OBSERVED CONVECTION IS WELL WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IS NOT RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE N OF 04N ALONG 100W MOVING WEST 18 KT. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. OBSERVED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N111W TO 17N115W MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 07N TO 15N. THE CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED BY CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE CONVECTION IS RELATED TO AN UPPER TROUGH DISCUSSED MORE FULLY BELOW. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 03N TO 15N ALONG 120W/121W MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 09N140W TO 16N134W MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THE CONVECTION HAS AND IS NOT ORGANIZED BY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N78W T0 07N105W TO 08N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 10N FROM 92W TO 106W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 111W TO 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 34N138W AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE AND ALSO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO PULL THE SHARP TROUGH MENTIONED BELOW NORTHWARD AND INTO THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS OUTWARD 600 NM OVER THE AREA. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE CLOUD FREE EXCEPT FOR BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF 30N FROM 130W TO 138W. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED. A SHARP MOSTLY UPPER TROUGH IS WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N120W TO 13N118W AND EXTENDS WEST TO 130W. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 17N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BY PULLED NORTHWARD AND BE INCORPORATED INTO THE FLOW NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND OVER A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE SOUTH TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 10N109W TO BEYOND THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOST OF THE TROUGH AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 19N104.5W. BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED. THIS FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HOWEVER NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED ONLY PATCHES OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF 16N WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. THE CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED AND NO DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST. EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEMS WEAK DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED. THIS AREA IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION EXTENDING EAST TO 90W. EAST OF 90W THE AREA IS DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 108W. REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE IS ANALYZED AS WEAK TROUGH. GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 94W ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 8 FT ARE CROSSING THE EQUATOR THROUGH TROPICAL E PACIFIC AND REACHING COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. SEAS OF 8 FT ARE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF 15N. $$ LL