000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260303 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 07N ALONG 85W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 04N ALONG 97W AND IS MOVING WAT ABOUT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO 16N. A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 110W HAS MOVED W AROUND 18 KT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE W PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 13N ALONG 118W AND HAS MOVED W AT ABOUT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA THAT IS TRANSITIONING FROM SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED ALONG AND W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG POINTS FROM 10N84W TO 09N94W T0 11N108W TO 06N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 18N BETWEEN 83W AND 115W SURROUNDING THE THREE TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 131W AND 139W. ...DISCUSSION... AN ILL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 11N140W TO 06N131W AND APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S TO NEAR 04N127W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO NEAR 33N108W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S TO A RIDGE CREST OVER OLD MEXICO AT 24N105W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS FORMING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N81W WITH A RIDGE W TO NEAR 18N94W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 78W AND 108W...AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF THE MOISTURE AS FAR N AS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO SPREADING S OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ...BUT APPEARERS TO EVAPORATE ALONG 03N BETWEEN 85W AND 111W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N138W WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 21N W OF 126W WHERE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED...BUT IS EVAPORATING WITH TIME. A NARROWING BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED FROM 32N124W TO 23N124W CONTINUING INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAS CUT OFF NEAR 17N122W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 118W AND 129W...AND IS SUPPRESSING ITCZ WITHIN THE SAME AREA. GAP WINDS...N WINDS ARE SURGING AT 15 TO KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MID MORNING SUN. NE TO E WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO ALONG 97W ARE PULSING TO 20 KT. NEWLY FORMING N AND NE SWELLS IN THESE AREAS ARE MERGING WITH S AND SW SWELLS THAT ORIGINATED IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC. EXPECTING E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE MON...WITH MERGING E AND SW SWELL. THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN IS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS ABOVE 8 FT ONLY OF CONCERN S OF 15N W OF 80W. $$ NELSON