000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252149 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 07N ALONG 82W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY ONLY ONE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CAN BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND THAT CLUSTER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES OVER THE N COAST OF COSTA RICA. THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS LIKELY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 04N ALONG 95W AND HAS APPARENTLY SLOWED ITS WESTWARD MOTION TO ABOUT 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO 15N. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE N OF 04N ALONG 109W HAS MOVED W AROUND 18 KT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE W PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 13N ALONG 116W AND HAS MOVED W AT ABOUT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA THAT IS TRANSITIONING FROM SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N TO 14N AROUND 140W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISSIPATING AT 12N138W. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG POINTS FROM 10N84W TO 09N94W T0 10N106W TO 06N128W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 86W AND 116W AND ALSO FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W...SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. ...DISCUSSION... AN ILL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 11N140W TO 04N129W AND APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO NEAR 34N108W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S TO A RIDGE CREST OVER THE COAST OF OLD MEXICO AT 23N105W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF OLD MEXICO...BUT A LITTLE FURTHER S NEAR 19N102W...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS THE THE GULF OF HONDURAS CRESTING NEAR 15N79W. ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 113W AND ENHANCING CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF THE MOISTURE AS FAR N AS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS SPREADING S OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ...BUT APPEARERS TO EVAPORATE ALONG 03N BETWEEN 82W AND 113W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N138W WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 21N W OF 125W WHERE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED...BUT APPEARS TO BE EVAPORATING WITH TIME. A NARROWING BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED FROM 32N124W TO 23N124W CONTINUING INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAS CUT OFF NEAR 15N120W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 117W AND 127W...AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO THE S OF 05N ALONG THE ITCZ. GAP WINDS...N WINDS ARE SURGING AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NE TO E WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO ALONG 91W ARE PULSING TO 20 KT. NEWLY FORMING N AND NE SWELLS IN THESE AREAS ARE MERGING WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS THAT ORIGINATED IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC. EXPECT E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE MON...WITH MERGING E AND SW SWELL. THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN IS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS ABOVE 8 FT ONLY OF CONCERN S OF 15N W OF 80W. $$ NELSON