000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL N OF 05N ALONG 85W TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA MOVING WEST 
25 TO 30 KT. STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH OF 03N EAST OF 81W BUT 
IT APPEARS TO BE MORE RELATED TO DIURNAL LAND SEA INTERACTION 
THAN DUE TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE. 
  
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 04N 100W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO MOVING WEST 
25 TO 30 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE CONVECTION 
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE CONVECTION IS 
NOT ORGANIZED BY ANY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
   
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 02N110W TO 15N107W MOVING W 25 KT. THERE IS 
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND APPEARS TO BE 
MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH...MENTIONED BELOW...THAN TO THE 
TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N136W TO 16N130W MOVING W 15 KT. A LINE OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 15N128W TO 09N140W. THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN 
THIS FORMATION FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS NOT BECOME 
OR ANTICIPATED TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
07N105W TO 06N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA NORTH OF 03N EAST OF 81W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 
NM OF THE POINT 07.5N103.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA 
CENTERED NEAR 32N143W. ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS WEST OF 
32N124W TO 25N125W TO 20N130W TO 19N140W. THIS AREA IS MOIST IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NW 
OF A LINE 32N131W TO 25N140W. AN EMBEDDED AREA OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE FAR NW PART 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 32N137W TO 28N140W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THIS AREA IT IS CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS 
OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED. THIS FEATURE IS 
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DRIFT A 
LITTLE EAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE 32N120W TO 18N115W. WEST 
OF THIS FEATURE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE THE ATMOSPHERE IS 
DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE LINE NORTH OF 25N BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. 

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO ALONG 
110W FROM SOUTH BAJA TO THE ITCZ. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED EAST OF 108.5W IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS CONVECTION 
REGION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W. 
OTHERWISE THE TROUGH AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW OR A FLAT HEIGHT PATTERN.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. REMAINDER OF 
THE SURFACE IS ANALYZED AS WEAK TROUGH.

GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KNOTS IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF UP TO 12 FT ARE CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR THROUGH TROPICAL E PACIFIC AND REACHING COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND MEXICO. SEAS OF 8 FEET ARE FORECAST AS FAR NORTH AS 
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.

$$
LL