000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 04N ALONG 92W/93W IS MOVING W AT 17 KT AS 
AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE AXIS IS MOVING OUT OF THE 
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND APPROACHING AN UPPER 
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS. CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ALONG THE 
INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N TO 14N ALONG 126W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS SITUATED UNDER AN AREA OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 
THE WAVE. HOWEVER THIS WAVE LIKE THE ONE NOTED ABOVE IS ENTERING 
A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. 
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N82W TO 07N100W TO 11N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS W OF 115W...AND N OF 03N E OF 82W TO THE GULF OF PANAMA.  

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
VERY COMPLEX MIR TO UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA PROVIDING STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT 
OVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 120W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N124W SWD THROUGH 20N122W 
THEN SW AS A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 17N130W THROUGH 14N140W. AXIS OF 
SUBTROPICAL JET WAS CUTTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE SHEAR AXIS 
ALONG 13N135W TO 21N120W. THIS JET WAS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W.  

E OF 110W...
A FAIRLY LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14N103W WAS MOVING WSW AT 15 KT. THIS FEATURE WAS 
SITUATED BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE 
SW U.S. AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 

GAP WINDS...GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN 24 
HOURS AS TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 79W IN THE CARIBBEAN 
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.    

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 18-20 SECONDS RESULTING IN SEAS 
AS HIGH AS 12-13 FT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC 
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA THU AND IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FRI. THESE 
SWELLS MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE 
COASTLINE BEGINNING THU.

$$
COBB