000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221015
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900  UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 03N ALONG 91W MOVE W AT 20 KT.  WAVE AXIS S 
OF ITCZ REMAINS UNDER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING 
CONVECTION WITHIN FEW HUNDRED MILES W OF WAVE AXIS WHILE N OF 
ITCZ STARTED TO EXPERIENCE ADVERSE WINDS INHIBITING CONVECTION.  

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N TO 14N ALONG 125W CONTINUES UNDER AREA OF 
DIFFLUENCE THAT ENHANCED SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WITH DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FANNING OUT NE.  MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TO LOW PRES 
FORMATION WITHIN 48 HRS BUT CONTINUE ITS WESTERLY PATH W OF 
140W. 
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N122W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 90W TO 100W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 120W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS W OF 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH CARIBBEAN RIDGE EXTENDING W 
INTO E PAC OVER S PART OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W ENHANCING ITS 
CONVECTION...BUT CYCLONE OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE CURTAILING 
DEVELOPMENT OVER N PART OF WAVE WITH WESTERLY SHEAR.  

FURTHER W...WAVE ALONG 125W HAS GOOD DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARM WATERS TO 
CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT.  OVERHEAD RIDGE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE AS WAVE 
MOVES W WHILE ANTICYCLONE IS FORCED E BY INCOMING TROUGH.  MODEL 
SOLUTIONS INTENSIFY WAVE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS TO BECOME TROPICAL 
CYCLONE.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH 
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 75W IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.   

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FT 
ARE CROSSING EQUATOR REACHING PAC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE 
THU AND IMPACTING REST OF BASIN S OF 20N THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES