000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W FROM 03N TO 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 11N. MOST OF THIS 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. 
 
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 130W FROM 03N TO 15N MOVING W 
15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N105W TO 06N120W TO 12N136W 
TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 05N TO 10N E OF 91W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN BE 
FOUND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 108W. PART OF THIS SHOWER 
AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 
112W-124W. 
 

...DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 125W...INCLUDING NW MEXICO 
AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER- 
LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 17N122W. JUST E OF THIS LOW THERE IS 
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 13N105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES IS HELPING TO INDUCE  
CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W. ANOTHER UPPER- 
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDING FROM 15N141W TO 26N130W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS 
REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO BRING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
FINALLY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO NOTED OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE EPAC ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 

AT THE SURFACE...EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES...ANALYZED 
1015 MB LOW PRES NEAR 26N134W...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 
15N WEST OF 113W. THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE N 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

NE TO E GAP WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OF 
20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS RAISING SEAS TO 9 FT. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL 
CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. AN EARLIER QSCAT-HI CONFIRMED THIS OUT OF SEASON GAP 
WIND EVENT.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL 
WIND FLOW IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT OVER WATERS S OF 10N W OF 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. ANOTHER SWELL GROUP PRIMARILY FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR MAINLY W OF 120W IN ABOUT 36 
HOURS SPREADING OVER WATERS S OF 10N IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  

$$
GR