000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190944
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 05N TO 13N MOVING W AT 15 KT 
REMAINS UNDER MODERATE N-NE WIND SHEAR PRODUCED BY UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE AT 14N105W.  CONVECTION SHOWS NO PRESENT SIGNS OF  
ORGANIZATION...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AFTER 24 HR AS WAVE AXIS 
WOULD MOVE W OF ANTICYCLONE UNDER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE RESTRICTED TO 
ITCZ WITH LITTLE HOPE OF INCREASING AS WAVE CONTINUES UNDER 
ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND MOVING INTO A DRY AREA.  

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 06N91W TO 07N123W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM N AND 90 NM S 
OF AXIS E OF 107W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM 
N OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE W OF 140W HAS DRY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
OVER E PAC W OF 130W RESTRICTING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND SPELLING 
DOOM FOR APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 128W.  UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONE AT 15N119W CUTTING OFF SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
PREVIOUSLY FEEDING REMNANTS OF DOLORES.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTEND S TO SECOND CYCLONE AT 01N113W.  SECOND CYCLONE COMBINES 
WITH DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N105W TO CREATE AREA OF 
MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT JUST AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
103W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
CONTINUE THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WITH FRESH S WIND FLOW RESULT 
IN SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 10N W OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. 

UNUSUALLY WEAK FRESH BREEZE OUT OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LASTING 
THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD NOT EXPECTED TO GET ANY STRONGER.

$$
WALLY BARNES