000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190243
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 05N TO 13N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
360 NM E OF AXIS SOUTH OF 11N. THIS CONVECTION SHOWS NO SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. 
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE 
AXIS. THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND 
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME OF THE COMPUTER FORECAST 
MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS 
IN ABOUT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N77W TO 
07N105W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 87W TO 103W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE POINT 10N116W. 

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WEST OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N128W TO 18N140W. THE NORTHEAST 
PART OF THIS AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WITH OVERCAST 
MIDDLE CLOUDS BECAUSE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS 
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. OTHERWISE 
THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
WITH MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS AND DRIFT A LITTLE EASTWARD. 

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 125W NORTH OF 15N. MOIST 
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS WELL EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SOME 
PATCHY UPPER CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH OF 25N FROM 117W TO 125W. 

ANOTHER SMALLER DEEP LAYER TOUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO 
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR 22N105W TO NEAR 15N120W. OVER THE OCEAN 
THIS AREA IS OBSERVED TO BE CLOUD FREE WITH LITTLE CONVECTION AT 
THIS TIME. OVER THE LAND STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N. THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD 
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS. THE AREA WEST OF 125W NORTH OF THE ITCZ IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
IS NORTH OF 30N AND ALSO WEST OF 130W IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

NE TO E GAP WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OF 
20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL 
WIND FLOW RESULT IN SEAS TO 9 FT OVER WATERS S OF 10N W OF THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. 

EXCEPT FOR THE BROAD WEAK LOW THAT IS THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES A 
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE A 
WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

$$
LL