000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180346
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 04N ALONG 96W MOVE WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND IS NOT ORGANIZED.
 
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 15N ALONG 121W MOVE WEST 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM WEST OF THE AXIS SOUTH OF 12N. THERE IS SOME ORGANIZATION TO 
THE CONVECTION. THE GFS MODEL SLOWLY DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE 
WAVE AXIS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
06N105W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM 
OF THE POINT 05.5N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 10N103W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 11.5N121.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WEST OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N131W TO 17N140W. THIS AREA IS 
MOIST ALOFT WITH BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF 29N. IN THE 
LOWER LEVELS BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS LOCATED MAINLY 
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA WITH CLOUD FREE LOWER 
LEVELS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND 
DRIFT A LITTLE EASTWARD. 

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 125W NORTH OF 15N. THIS 
FEATURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF 
DOLORES. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS WELL EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS 
WITH SOME PATCHY UPPER CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH OF 23N FROM 117W TO 
125W. 

ANOTHER SMALLER DEEP LAYER TOUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO 
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR 22N105W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 115W. CONVECTION 
IS ENHANCED NEAR THE TROUGH SOUTH OF 15N WITH WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N FROM 107W TO 116W.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS. THE AREA BETWEEN THE TWO LARGER TROUGHS IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
IS NORTH OF 30N AND ALSO WEST OF 132W.

NE TO E GAP WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OF 
20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL 
WIND FLOW RESULT IN SEAS TO 10 FT OVER WATERS S OF 06N W OF 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. 

EXCEPT FOR THE BROAD WEAK LOW THAT IS THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES A 
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 105W. ELSEWHERE A 
WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

$$
LL