000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES REMNANT OF DOLORES AT 20N125W MOVING NW AT 15 KT.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 1006 MB.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS STILL REMAIN WITHIN 75 
NM N OF CENTER WHILE MOST OTHER CONVECTION HAS BEEN LOST BY 
NOW.  LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 36 HR.  LAST 
ADVISORY ON DOLORES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC WAS ISSUED AT 17/0300 UTC.

LOW PRES REMNANT OF CARLOS AT 09N139W MOVE W 15 KT.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 1007 
MB.  REMNANT LOW PRES HAVE MERGED INTO ITCZ AND NOT IDENTIFIED 
ANY LONGER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED BASIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS S 
OF GUATEMALA ALONG 90W.  WAVE HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION AS IT HAS 
BEEN DRAGGING CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF AFRICAN DUST WITH IT.  
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN STRENGTH SINCE UPPER ENVIRONMENT WILL 
REMAIN ADVERSE TO DEVELOPMENT.  
 
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N-15N ALONG 118W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN MOISTURE PLUME LEADING TO REMNANTS OF 
DOLORES AND IS STILL UNABLE TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ISOLATED 
MODERATE TSTMS DUE TO ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT.  WAVE EXPECTED 
TO MOVE OUT OF PLUME WITHIN INTO DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MASS NEXT 
24 WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY FURTHER WEAKEN SYSTEM...MAKING ITS 
FUTURE DOUBTFUL.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N116W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 85W AND FROM 95W TO 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 32N130W TO 15N125W IS MAIN FEATURE W OF 
120W AS IT KEEP AIR MASS VERY DRY AND STABLE.  E OF AXIS...LARGE 
MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM ITCZ N INTO LOW 
PRES...REMNANTS OF DOLORES.  DOWNSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAINTAINS CAP OVER LOW LEVEL STRATIFIED
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS N OF 20N AND ADVERSE NE WINDS ALOFT 
OVER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W.  SURFACE HIGH PRES 1023 MB AT 
28N138W KEEP STEADY FRESH NW BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

NE TO E GAP WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH E FRESH BREEZE BECOMING 
STRONG ON FRI THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN SAT.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WITH FRESH S LOW LEVEL WIND 
FLOW RESULT IN SEAS TO 10 FT OVER WATERS S OF 06N W OF GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLY BARNES