000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162116 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUL 16 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... DOLORES HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 122.7W AT 16/2100 UTC IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 16 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. DOLORES HAS LOST DEEP CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS....HOWEVER ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO REMNANT LOW CARLOS LOCATED NEAR 09.4N 136.4W AT 16/2100 UTC MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 14 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE CENTER OF CARLOS REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF MOST OT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVE WEST WITHIN OR JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER IT IS NOT FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND EXTENDS SOUTH OF COSTA RICA TO 05N ALONG 85W. THE WAVE HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE AXIS MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF AFRICAN DUST THAT WILL PRODUCE HAZY SKIES AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 17N ALONG 114W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AN AVERAGE SPEED OF 15 KT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS SOUTH OF 12N AND WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS FAR EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO NEAR 103W. THE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZED. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 07N105W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W. AS NOTED ABOVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 102W TO 115W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WEST OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N133W TO 20N140W. THIS AREA IS MOIST ALOFT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SOUTH OF A LINE 30N135W TO 27M140W WITHIN THIS AREA AND SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF THIS LINE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SMALL DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTHEAST PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AREA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH THE NEST COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THIS AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 110W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ENHANCED CONVECTION CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE TROUGH. CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN EASTWARD TO 95W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AREA BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS OVER A LARGE AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 15N128W TO 17N140W. NE TO E GAP WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REACHING TO 20 TO 30 KT FRIDAY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW RESULT IN SEAS TO 10 FT OVER WATERS S OF 06N W OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. EXCEPT FOR THE LARGE TROUGH SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN PART OF DOLORES A MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 105W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR CARLOS AND DOLORES A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE. $$ LL