000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...LOCATED AT 18.9N 120.4W AT 16/1500 UTC 
IS MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 15 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRES IS 1002 MB. DOLORES HAS LOST NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION AS 
IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS. FURTHER 
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW 
THEREAFTER. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS...LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 135.0W AT 
16/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 14 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE CENTER OF CARLOS REMAINS 
DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THIS 
CONVECTION CONSISTS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG BURSTS 
WITHIN 90-120 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION. CARLOS 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS AND PASS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 110W AND HAS BEEN 
MOVING W AN AVERAGE SPEED OF 15 KT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. 
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM OF 
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. 

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 12N107W TO 10N125W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 113W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA TO THE W OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 12N140W WITH 
EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONES NEAR 31N128W AND 14N138W. A BAND OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE NW PORTION...N OF 22N W 
OF 135W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 16N W OF 123W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE NEW 
MEXICO AND W TEXAS NEAR 32N105W...AND HAS AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW OVER TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES.  

A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N...CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC 
ALONG 16N98W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 12N105W...THEN THE 
TROUGH CONTINUES S CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 103W. CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AND NEAR 07N106W.

GAP WINDS...EASTERLY TRADES AT 20 TO 25 KT...WITH SEAS TO 10 
FT...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO FOR AT LEAST 2 MORE DAYS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
EXTEND WESTWARD TO ALONG 105W BY 48 HOURS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS AND 
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 
10 FT SPREADING N OVER THE WATERS S OF 12N W OF THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS TO ALONG 130W THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB