000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM DELORES...LOCATED AT 18.2N 119.1W AT 16/0900 UTC 
AND IS MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 16 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRES IS 1000 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING ALONG A BAND OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE... 
ROUGHLY WITHIN 30 NM OF POINTS 17N117W AND 16N119W AND 20N121W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 15 NM OF A NEW BAND FORMING 
OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE...ALONG POINTS 20N117W TO 17N115W TO 
14N115W. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS...LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 133.5W AT 
16/0900 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 12 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE CENTER OF CARLOS HAS RACED OUT 
TO THE W OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF 09.5N132.5W. CAROLS IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRES AS HE PASSES W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 109W AND HAS BEEN 
MOVING W AT 18 KT OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY 
ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N 
TO 12N. 

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 12N100W TO 10N125W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 09N97W TO 11N113W AND 
ALSO WITHIN 30 NM LINE 09N136W TO 07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA TO THE W OF A LINE FROM 32N119W TO 12N140W WITH 
EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONES AT 31N127W AND 14N138W. A BAND OF UPPER 
MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE NW PORTION...N OF 23N W OF 136W. 
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 16N W OF 123W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN OLD 
MEXICO NEAR 31N108W...AND HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DELORES TO A CREST AT 14N130W. 

A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 20N AND OVER THE E PACIFIC ALONG 16N98W INTO AN UPPER 
CYCLONE AT 13N101W...THEN THE TROUGH CONTINUES S CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 103W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE TROPICAL 
WAVE AND NEAR 07N106W.

GAP WINDS...EASTERLY TRADES AT 15 TO 25 KT...WITH SEAS TO 10 
FT...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO FOR AT LEAST 2 MORE DAYS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS AND 
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 
10 FT SPREADING N OVER THE WATERS S OF 12N W OF THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS TO ALONG 130W THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

$$
NELSON